Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 10 at the 74

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(3:03) 16-J.Scott punts 43 yards to BAL 31, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 16-T.Wallace. PENALTY on BAL-2-N.Wiggins, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at BAL 31.

The Three Options

GO -1.81 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +2.21 EP
63% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 74, worth -4.16 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model