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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 7 at the 44

Washington Commanders 3 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(14:54) 10-T.Way punts 38 yards to DAL 6, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

The Three Options

GO +0.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.57 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 44, worth -2.16 EP
KICK -0.55 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 12, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP