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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 9 at the 46

Washington Commanders 3 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(8:22) 10-T.Way punts 39 yards to DAL 7, Center-69-T.Ott, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.67 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 46, worth -2.47 EP
KICK -0.87 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.54 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.59 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 13, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP