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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 9 at the 55

Washington Commanders 3 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(:56) 10-T.Way punts 41 yards to DAL 14, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by WAS-69-T.Ott.

The Three Options

GO -0.49 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.62 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 55, worth -2.50 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 16, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model