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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 7 at the 67

Washington Commanders 9 – Dallas Cowboys 10

What Actually Happened

(3:56) 10-T.Way punts 51 yards to DAL 16, Center-69-T.Ott. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 14 for -2 yards (35-P.Butler).

The Three Options

GO -1.08 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.14 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 67, worth -3.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 25, worth -0.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model