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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Dallas Cowboys
4th & 8 at the 53
Dallas Cowboys 10 – Washington Commanders 9
What Actually Happened
(12:53) 5-B.Anger punts 48 yards to WAS 5, Center-44-T.Sieg, downed by DAL-85-P.Fant.
The Three Options
GO
-0.89 EP
-
34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.61 EP
- 66% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 53, worth -2.71 EP
KICK
-1.48 EP
- 25% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
- 75% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT
-0.61 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- Washington Commanders would take over around their own 15, worth -0.61 EP
The Verdict
Chose PUNT
✓ matched the model
