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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 4 at the 89

Washington Commanders 9 – Dallas Cowboys 10

What Actually Happened

(11:25) 10-T.Way punts 39 yards to 50, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

The Three Options

GO -1.76 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 85, worth +0.57 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 89, worth -4.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.32 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 46, worth -2.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP