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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 7 at the 23

Washington Commanders 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(9:04) 3-A.Seibert 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +1.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +5.14 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 23, worth -0.62 EP
KICK +1.56 EP
What Happened
  • 89% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 33, worth -1.40 EP
PUNT +0.16 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model