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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 5 at the 24

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Washington Commanders 3

What Actually Happened

(3:42) 17-B.Aubrey 42 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.62 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24, worth -0.93 EP
KICK +1.17 EP
What Happened
  • 88% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 34, worth -1.75 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model