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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 19 at the 35

Denver Broncos 3 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(9:26) 3-W.Lutz 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO -0.49 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.60 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 35, worth -2.07 EP
KICK +0.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.17 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 45, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT -0.69 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model