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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 15 at the 16

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Denver Broncos 6

What Actually Happened

(3:52) 2-D.Carlson 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +1.07 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.42 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 16, worth -0.40 EP
KICK +1.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26, worth -0.89 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model