4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 14 at the 36

Denver Broncos 6 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(:58) 3-W.Lutz 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +0.18 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.16 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 36, worth -1.35 EP
KICK +0.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 46, worth -2.08 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model