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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 7 at the 54

Denver Broncos 16 – Las Vegas Raiders 13

What Actually Happened

(3:10) 9-R.Dixon punts 43 yards to LV 11, Center-48-M.Fraboni, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.62 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.90 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 54, worth -3.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.83 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 16, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model