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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 10 at the 35

Las Vegas Raiders 13 – Denver Broncos 19

What Actually Happened

(9:04) 2-D.Carlson 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +0.29 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.37 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 35, worth -1.33 EP
KICK +0.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 45, worth -1.90 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model