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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 4 at the 4

Las Vegas Raiders 16 – Denver Broncos 26

What Actually Happened

(3:41) 2-D.Carlson 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +1.77 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.37 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 4, worth -0.49 EP
KICK +1.39 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.43 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21, worth -1.01 EP
PUNT -0.66 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP