4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 8 at the 15

Denver Broncos 26 – Las Vegas Raiders 19

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 3-W.Lutz 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +1.49 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +4.83 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 15, worth -0.19 EP
KICK +2.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.61 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25, worth -0.34 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model