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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 9 at the 51

Denver Broncos 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(9:16) 9-R.Dixon punts 43 yards to LV 8, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 19-D.Turner.

The Three Options

GO -0.94 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.86 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 51, worth -3.08 EP
KICK -1.60 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.29 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -3.08 EP
PUNT -0.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 14, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model