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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 11 at the 93

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(8:04) 6-A.Cole punts 60 yards to DEN 33, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -3.27 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +1.01 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 93, worth -5.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (110 yards).

PUNT -2.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 51, worth -2.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model