Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 70

Carolina Panthers 6 – Kansas City Chiefs 13

What Actually Happened

(5:25) 10-J.Hekker punts 55 yards to KC 15, Center-44-J.Jansen. 17-M.Hardman ran ob at KC 31 for 16 yards (42-S.Franklin). PENALTY on KC-27-C.Conner, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at KC 15.

The Three Options

GO -1.80 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.13 EP
66% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 70, worth -3.77 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model