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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 11

Carolina Panthers 6 – Kansas City Chiefs 20

What Actually Happened

(:04) 4-E.Pineiro 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.17 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +4.29 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP
KICK +2.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.97 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 22, worth -0.01 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model