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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 2

Carolina Panthers 9 – Kansas City Chiefs 20

What Actually Happened

(7:30) 70-B.Christensen reported in as eligible. 30-C.Hubbard up the middle to KC 1 for 1 yard (51-M.Danna).

The Three Options

GO +4.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.47 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 2, worth +0.60 EP
KICK +1.80 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21, worth -0.54 EP
PUNT +0.13 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model