Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 12 at the 77

Carolina Panthers 19 – Kansas City Chiefs 27

(4:37) 10-J.Hekker punts 48 yards to KC 29, Center-44-J.Jansen. 17-M.Hardman to KC 25 for -4 yards (42-S.Franklin; 53-C.Cherelus).

The Three Options

GO -2.53 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.34 EP
68% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 77, worth -4.32 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model