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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 3 at the 42

Carolina Panthers 19 – Kansas City Chiefs 27

What Actually Happened

(2:01) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 19-A.Thielen to KC 29 for 13 yards (27-C.Conner).

The Three Options

GO +0.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +2.71 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 42, worth -1.64 EP
KICK -0.01 EP
  • 52% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -1.85 EP
PUNT -0.67 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 12, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model