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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 13

Carolina Panthers 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

What Actually Happened

(14:46) 4-E.Pineiro 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.73 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.22 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 13, worth +0.05 EP
KICK +1.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 23, worth -0.60 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model