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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 4 at the 30

Chicago Bears 7 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(9:39) 8-C.Santos 48 yard field goal is BLOCKED (99-J.Tillery), Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor, RECOVERED by MIN-6-B.Asamoah at MIN 25. 6-B.Asamoah to MIN 47 for 22 yards (76-T.Jenkins).

The Three Options

GO +1.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.44 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30, worth -1.31 EP
KICK +0.95 EP
What Happened
  • 80% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 40, worth -1.93 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model