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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 5 at the 65

Chicago Bears 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(13:25) 19-T.Taylor punts 52 yards to MIN 13, Center-46-S.Daly. 4-B.Powell to MIN 26 for 13 yards (30-T.Moore).

The Three Options

GO -0.81 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.67 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 65, worth -3.58 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 23, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model