4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 64

Minnesota Vikings 14 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(3:17) 17-R.Wright punts 44 yards to CHI 20, Center-47-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.57 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 64, worth -3.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.01 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 22, worth -1.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.12 EP