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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 6 at the 31

Chicago Bears 7 – Minnesota Vikings 14

What Actually Happened

(:03) 8-C.Santos 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO +0.93 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +2.56 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 31, worth -0.04 EP
KICK +2.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.98 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 41, worth -0.18 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model