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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 3 at the 57

Chicago Bears 10 – Minnesota Vikings 17

What Actually Happened

(8:07) 19-T.Taylor punts 42 yards to MIN 15, Center-46-S.Daly, fair catch by 4-B.Powell.

The Three Options

GO -0.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.50 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 57, worth -3.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.69 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 17, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP