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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 4 at the 20

Chicago Bears 10 – Minnesota Vikings 24

What Actually Happened

(8:39) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams scrambles right end ran ob at MIN 13 for 7 yards (44-J.Metellus; 7-B.Murphy).

The Three Options

GO +1.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.74 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 20, worth -0.95 EP
KICK +1.41 EP
  • 92% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30, worth -1.35 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model