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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 3 at the 33

Chicago Bears 16 – Minnesota Vikings 27

What Actually Happened

(1:32) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short middle to 15-R.Odunze to MIN 19 for 14 yards (24-C.Bynum; 7-B.Murphy).

The Three Options

GO +1.11 EP
What Happened
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +2.89 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 33, worth -0.58 EP
KICK +1.59 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 43, worth -0.78 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.47 EP