Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 15 at the 73

Chicago Bears 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(5:47) 19-T.Taylor punts 49 yards to MIN 24, Center-46-S.Daly. 4-B.Powell pushed ob at MIN 38 for 14 yards (30-T.Moore). PENALTY on MIN-30-C.Ham, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at MIN 33.

The Three Options

GO -2.22 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.45 EP
72% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 73, worth -4.07 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model