Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 10 at the 77

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(5:21) 17-R.Wright punts 46 yards to CHI 31, Center-47-J.McQuaide, downed by MIN-6-B.Asamoah. PENALTY on CHI-44-N.Sewell, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 31.

The Three Options

GO -2.52 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.13 EP
63% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 77, worth -4.63 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model