Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 9 at the 69

New England Patriots 0 – Miami Dolphins 14

(6:12) 17-B.Baringer punts 69 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.94 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.81 EP
65% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 69, worth -3.92 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model