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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 61

New England Patriots 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(12:37) 17-B.Baringer punts 57 yards to MIA 4, Center-49-J.Cardona. 83-M.Washington to MIA 17 for 13 yards (21-J.Hawkins).

The Three Options

GO +0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.76 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 61, worth -3.76 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -1.22 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 20, worth -1.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.28 EP