Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 20 at the 80

New England Patriots 0 – Miami Dolphins 21

(1:36) 17-B.Baringer punts 39 yards to MIA 41, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.95 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.02 EP
75% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 80, worth -4.58 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model