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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 3 at the 3

Miami Dolphins 21 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(:05) 7-J.Sanders 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Addington, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +3.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.90 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 3, worth +0.12 EP
KICK +2.92 EP
What Happened
  • 99% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.96 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 21, worth -0.01 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP