Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 6 at the 66

Miami Dolphins 24 – New England Patriots 0

(13:09) 16-J.Bailey punts 52 yards to NE 14, Center-46-T.Addington. 25-M.Jones to NE 25 for 11 yards (81-D.Smythe).

The Three Options

GO -1.07 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.34 EP
57% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 66, worth -3.68 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model