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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 13 at the 27

New England Patriots 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(3:13) 13-J.Slye 45 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

The Three Options

GO +0.16 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.96 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 27, worth -1.44 EP
KICK +0.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.32 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 37, worth -2.32 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model