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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 18 at the 64

Philadelphia Eagles 3 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(12:47) 10-B.Mann punts 54 yards to LA 10, Center-49-R.Lovato. 19-X.Smith to LA 21 for 11 yards (42-O.Burks).

The Three Options

GO -1.94 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.75 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 64, worth -3.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 22, worth -1.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model