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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 4 at the 73

Los Angeles Rams 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 3

What Actually Happened

(11:48) 42-E.Evans punts 37 yards to PHI 36, Center-47-A.Ward, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.

The Three Options

GO -1.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.67 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 73, worth -4.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.22 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 31, worth -1.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model