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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 18 at the 78

Los Angeles Rams 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 6

What Actually Happened

(4:24) 42-E.Evans punts 48 yards to PHI 30, Center-47-A.Ward. 18-B.Covey to PHI 38 for 8 yards (88-J.Whittington).

The Three Options

GO -2.54 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.02 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 78, worth -4.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 35, worth -1.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model