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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 50

Los Angeles Rams 14 – Philadelphia Eagles 37

What Actually Happened

(1:56) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 5-T.Atwell to PHI 38 for 12 yards (42-O.Burks).

The Three Options

GO +0.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +1.90 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 50, worth -1.58 EP
KICK -0.26 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -1.58 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 14, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model