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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 3 at the 3

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(5:17) 4-J.Elliott 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +2.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.29 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 3, worth -0.11 EP
KICK +1.31 EP
What Happened
  • 99% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.35 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -1.00 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.18 EP