4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 10 at the 10

Houston Texans 14 – Tennessee Titans 17

What Actually Happened

(1:49) 15-K.Fairbairn 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +1.46 EP
  • 29% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.74 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 10, worth -0.31 EP
KICK +1.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.78 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model