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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 11 at the 44

Tennessee Titans 17 – Houston Texans 17

What Actually Happened

(:54) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 38 yards to HOU 6, Center-46-M.Cox. 2-R.Woods to HOU 14 for 8 yards (41-O.Reese).

The Three Options

GO -0.45 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.29 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 44, worth -1.91 EP
KICK -0.14 EP
  • 51% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.35 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 12, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model