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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 8 at the 33

Tennessee Titans 0 – Houston Texans 7

What Actually Happened

(11:19) 6-N.Folk 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

The Three Options

GO -0.01 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.18 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 33, worth -1.93 EP
KICK +0.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.27 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 43, worth -2.59 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model