Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 6 at the 76

Tennessee Titans 30 – Houston Texans 27

What Actually Happened

(1:39) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 61 yards to HOU 15, Center-46-M.Cox. 2-R.Woods to HOU 27 for 12 yards (81-J.Whyle). PENALTY on HOU-29-M.Stewart, Illegal Blindside Block, 7 yards, enforced at HOU 15.

The Three Options

GO -1.62 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.02 EP
59% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 76, worth -3.46 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model