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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 1 at the 44

Tennessee Titans 3 – Houston Texans 7

What Actually Happened

(2:45) 8-W.Levis scrambles right end to HOU 38 for 6 yards (21-C.Bullock).

The Three Options

GO +1.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.85 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 44, worth -2.61 EP
KICK -0.80 EP
  • 51% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.32 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -3.02 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 12, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model