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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 9 at the 13

Arizona Cardinals 3 – Minnesota Vikings 3

What Actually Happened

(6:05) 38-C.Ryland 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO +1.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.75 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 13, worth -0.43 EP
KICK +1.37 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.47 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 23, worth -0.98 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model